| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) |
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Panel A: academic
| | | | | | | | | |
---|
Failed last | -0.40 | -0.48 | -0.42 | -0.48 | -0.42 | -0.48 | -0.42 | -0.40 | -0.40 |
---|
Grade enrolled | (0.01)*** | (0.03)*** | (0.04)*** | (0.03)*** | (0.04)*** | (0.03)*** | (0.04)*** | (0.01)*** | (0.02)*** |
---|
Previous grades | -0.17 | -0.22 | -0.21 | -0.22 | -0.21 | -0.22 | -0.21 | -0.17 | -0.17 |
---|
Failed | (0.01)*** | (0.03)*** | (0.04)*** | (0.03)*** | (0.04)*** | (0.03)*** | (0.04)*** | (0.01)*** | (0.01)*** |
---|
R-squared | 0.70 | 0.81 | 0.67 | 0.81 | 0.67 | 0.81 | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
---|
Panel B: vocational
| | | | | | | | | |
Failed last | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
Grade enrolled | (0.005)* | (0.02) | (0.02) | (0.02) | (0.02) | (0.02) | (0.02) | (0.005)* | (0.01) |
Previous grades | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Failed | 0.00 | (0.01) | (0.02) | (0.01) | (0.02) | (0.01) | (0.02) | (0.00) | (0.00) |
R-squared | 0.26 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.26 | 0.24 |
Observations | 23,997 | 6,805 | 6,614 | 6,805 | 6,614 | 6,805 | 6,614 | 23,997 | 14,053 |
No. individuals | 2,927 | 2,900 | 2,855 | 2,900 | 2,855 | 2,900 | 2,855 | 2,927 | 1,700 |
p-value of difference
| | | | | | | | | |
Failed last | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Grade enrolled | | | | | | | | | |
Previous grades | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Failed | | | | | | | | | |
- Robust standard errors in parentheses, clustered by individual. * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%. Sample is person-years from estimation sample described in Appendix A Data definitions, with completed education 9 years or more, from CAPS life history panel. Excludes person-years corresponding to Wave 5 for which fraudulent fieldwork suspected. Vocational programs include technical colleges, NTC and universities of technology. Re-enrollment refers to enrollment after at least one year of non-enrollment. Sample sizes drop in regressions including shocks because these only measured in Waves 1, 3 and 4. All regressions are survey-weighted linear probability models that include individual fixed effects and age, completed schooling, and calendar year dummies. Key to included shocks in each regression, by column: (1) none. (2) any household shock, including death; serious illness or injury; job loss; major financial loss (including business failure or bankruptcy); abandonment or divorce; theft, fire or property damage; or other shock. (3) any household shock (t−1). (4) death, serious illness or injury. (5) death, serious illness or injury (t−1). (6) job loss; major financial loss; theft, fire or property damage. (7) job loss; major financial loss; theft, fire or property damage (t−1). (8) pension eligibility (regression discontinuity specification). (9) pregnancy, marriage and their first lags (females only).