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Table 12 Estimates of split-cure model—first employment—probability of never transiting

From: Pathways from school to work in the developing world

  Armenia Benin Brazil Cambodia Egypt El Salvador Jamaica Jordan Macedonia, FYR OPT Peru Samoa Tanzania
Age left education
 16–18 0.273* 0.021 −0.064 −0.290** −0.002 −2.737 −0.115 3.928*** 0.147 0.143 0.342*** 0.012
(0.152) (0.108) (0.090) (0.130) (0.086) (31.047) (0.199) (1.237) (0.190) (0.142) (0.120) (0.243)
 After 18 0.827*** 0.020 0.044 3.204 0.080 −2.374 1.821*** 2.114*** 2.227*** 0.375** 0.710*** 0.637**
(0.174) (0.102) (0.111) (28.437) (0.101) (31.048) (0.220) (0.654) (0.323) (0.157) (0.125) (0.300)
Work in school 0.706*** 1.275*** 0.351*** 0.860*** 0.644*** 0.147 0.300 0.759* 0.251 0.551*** 0.493*** 0.022
(0.144) (0.176) (0.096) (0.169) (0.087) (0.156) (0.269) (0.399) (0.170) (0.121) (0.162) (0.322)
Father education
 Primary −0.328** −0.054 0.280** −0.036 0.846** 0.112 0.086 −2.557*** −0.112   0.092 −0.052
(0.166) (0.120) (0.141) (0.165) (0.330) (0.185) (0.145) (0.707) (0.170)   (0.083) (0.236)
 Secondary −0.407**    0.010   −0.510** 0.279 −1.713* −0.096 0.139   
(0.173)    (0.357)   (0.258) (0.239) (0.957) (0.187) (0.174)   
Urban −0.101 −0.115 −0.110 −0.225* 0.437*** 0.068 −0.287* 1.806*** 0.038    −1.137***
(0.089) (0.081) (0.099) (0.121) (0.079) (0.145) (0.172) (0.488) (0.204)    (0.315)
Female −1.407*** −0.232*** −0.251*** −1.501*** −1.108*** 0.362** −2.776*** −0.597** −2.767*** −0.453*** −0.128* 0.128
(0.100) (0.079) (0.086) (0.136) (0.079) (0.173) (0.153) (0.303) (0.231) (0.107) (0.074) (0.217)
GDP growth at time of leaving education 0.014*** 0.190*** 0.033*** −0.016 0.018   0.007 0.066 −0.025 −0.028* 0.051*** −0.641***
(0.005) (0.036) (0.011) (0.036) (0.018)   (0.034) (0.058) (0.016) (0.017) (0.013) (0.226)
Observations 1849 1402 2246 2011 2213 1499 2873 1228 1546 1341 1736 1001
Togo Tunisia Ukraine Vietnam Uganda Madagascar Nepal Russian Fed. Kyrgyz Rep. Moldova, Rep.    
Age left education
 16–18 2.301 −0.049 0.100 −0.603 0.101 −0.116 −0.099 0.272 0.055 −0.125    
(46.108) (0.160) (0.173) (0.379) (0.108) (0.127) (0.119) (0.192) (0.173) (0.191)    
 After 18 0.456 −0.244* 0.460*** −0.665* 0.163 −0.134 −0.172 0.540*** 0.709*** 0.093    
(0.324) (0.148) (0.171) (0.395) (0.131) (0.168) (0.112) (0.189) (0.204) (0.226)    
Work in school 0.503** 0.430*** 0.262*** 2.254 0.211** 0.423*** 0.504*** 0.251* 0.236 0.233    
(0.228) (0.152) (0.090) (105.230) (0.098) (0.141) (0.094) (0.137) (0.152) (0.149)    
Father education
 Primary 2.490 0.186   2.299 −0.314** −0.194 −0.273** −0.026 −0.341*     
(50.149) (0.187)   (65.505) (0.133) (0.130) (0.128) (0.115) (0.191)     
 Secondary   3.032 0.068 13.443 −0.141   0.203 −0.120 −0.113 0.185    
  (34.958) (0.079)   (0.171)   (0.212) (0.129) (0.310) (0.317)    
Urban −0.514*** 0.374*** 0.310*** 1.146 0.118 −0.257** 0.020 0.320*** 0.033 0.086    
(0.188) (0.128) (0.078) (1.999) (0.123) (0.114) (0.102) (0.096) (0.117) (0.179)    
Female 0.081 −0.798*** −0.473*** −0.267 −0.427*** −0.097 −0.689*** −0.515*** −1.205*** −0.804***    
(0.196) (0.130) (0.073) (0.281) (0.109) (0.107) (0.089) (0.108) (0.143) (0.165)    
GDP growth at time of leaving education 0.002 0.000 0.010** 0.288 −0.023 0.001 0.058 0.011 0.015 −0.010    
(0.017) (0.031) (0.005) (0.178) (0.023) (0.010) (0.040) (0.011) (0.016) (0.015)    
Observations 832 1463 1725 1620 1903 1511 1110 1984 1780 507    
  1. Notes. The table reports estimates of the probability of failure (never transit to employment after leaving school) from a split−cure model, separately by country. A log-log” specification is adopted. In formulas, the probability of never transiting is modeled as exp(−exp(X'b)), where X denotes the covariates. Estimates of the vector b reported in the Table. Dummies for missing value of all included characteristics also included (coefficients not reported). Standard errors in brackets. ***,**,*: significant at 1, 5, and 10 percent level, respectively