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IZA Journal of Labor & Development

Table 4 Enrollment response to grade failure and previous employment, by program type

From: Safety valve or sinkhole? Vocational schooling in South Africa

 

(1)

(2)

diff.

(3)

(4)

diff.

Panel A: full sample

Academic

(3)-(1)

Vocational

(4)-(2)

Failed last grade enrolled

-0.40

-0.39

***

-0.01

-0.01

***

 

(0.01)***

(0.01)***

 

(0.005)*

(0.005)*

 

Previous grades failed

-0.17

-0.17

***

0.004

0.004

***

 

(0.01)***

(0.01)***

 

(0.004)

(0.004)

 

Not employed last period

 

0.07

  

0.02

***

  

(0.01)***

  

(0.004)***

 

Observations

23,997

23,997

 

23,997

23,997

 

R-squared

0.70

0.70

 

0.26

0.26

 

No. individuals

2,927

2,927

 

2,927

2,927

 

Includes work experience

 

x

  

x

 

Panel B: by level

Secondary

diff.

Post-secondary

diff.

 

Academic

Vocational

(2)-(1)

Academic

Vocational

(4)-(3)

Failed last grade enrolled

-0.44

-0.02

***

-0.27

-0.16

 
 

(0.01)***

(0.005)***

 

(0.06)***

(0.05)***

 

Previous grades failed

-0.22

0.01

***

-0.41

-0.12

***

 

(0.01)***

(0.01)

 

(0.09)***

(0.06)**

 

Observations

17,023

17,023

 

6,974

6,974

 

R-squared

0.77

0.32

 

0.60

0.49

 

No. individuals

2,927

2,927

 

1,325

1,325

 

Panel C: by previous period choice

Dropout only

diff.

Re-enrollment only

diff.

 

Academic

Vocational

(2)-(1)

Academic

Vocational

(4)-(3)

Failed last grade enrolled

-0.38

-0.01

***

-0.38

-0.06

***

 

(0.02)***

(0.01)

 

(0.03)***

(0.02)***

 

Previous grades failed

-0.14

0.00

***

-0.39

-0.03

***

 

(0.02)***

(0.01)

 

(0.03)***

(0.01)**

 

Observations

11,914

11,914

 

12,083

12,083

 

R-squared

0.65

0.35

 

0.69

0.38

 

No. individuals

2,912

2,912

 

2,702

2,702

 

Panel D: by program of last enrollment

Last enrollment: academic

diff.

Last enrollment: vocational

diff.

 

Academic

Vocational

(2)-(1)

Academic

Vocational

(4)-(3)

Failed last grade enrolled

-0.42

-0.01

***

0.03

-0.43

***

 

(0.01)***

(0.003)**

 

(0.07)

(0.13)***

 

Previous grades failed

-0.18

0.003

***

0.003

-0.25

*

 

(0.01)***

(0.004)

 

(0.03)

(0.17)

 

Observations

23,120

23,120

 

877

877

 

R-squared

0.71

0.22

 

0.65

0.75

 

No. individuals

2,927

2,927

 

245

245

 
  1. Robust standard errors in parentheses, clustered by individual. *significant at 10%; **significant at 5%; ***significant at 1%. Sample is person-years from estimation sample (sample selection criteria described in Appendix A Data definitions), with completed education 9 years or more, from CAPS life history panel. Excludes person-years corresponding to Wave 5 for which fraudulent fieldwork suspected. All regressions are survey-weighted linear probability models that include individual fixed effects and age, completed schooling, and calendar year dummies. Work experience variables include dummy for non-employment in last period of non-enrollment and cumulative work experience. Vocational programs include technical colleges, NTC and universities of technology. Secondary and post-secondary refer to person-years with completed schooling corresponding to indicated level. Dropout refers to non-enrollment following a period of enrollment. Re-enrollment refers to enrollment after at least one year of non-enrollment.
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