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Table 3 Marginal effects from a probit regression, all individuals Ages 15-29

From: Making sense of Arab labor markets: the enduring legacy of dualism

Dependent variable: unemployed or not for those in labor force

 

All Main Effects

All Interacted

Egypt 1996

Egypt 2006

Iraq 1997

Jordan 2004

Morocco 2004

Palestine 1997

Palestine 2007

Base Probability

0.396

0.387

0.561

0.244

0.196

0.320

0.391

0.190

0.244

Public employment rate in governorate/province (SD)

0.020 (0.012)

−0.012 (0.017)

0.008 (0.046)

−0.015 (0.018)

0.014* (0.005)

−0.015 (0.017)

0.028 (0.019)

0.030* (0.015)

−0.020 (0.015)

Individual characteristics

         

Age

0.046*** (0.012)

0.046*** (0.012)

0.113*** (0.012)

0.043*** (0.004)

−0.103*** (0.005)

−0.086*** (0.010)

0.033*** (0.004)

−0.054*** (0.008)

−0.023 (0.012)

Age Sq.

−0.002*** (0.000)

−0.002*** (0.000)

−0.003*** (0.000)

−0.002*** (0.000)

0.002*** (0.000)

0.001*** (0.000)

−0.001*** (0.000)

0.001*** (0.000)

−0.000 (0.000)

Female

0.152*** (0.012)

0.182*** (0.015)

0.131*** (0.015)

0.198*** (0.018)

−0.270*** (0.016)

0.372*** (0.008)

0.021 (0.020)

0.065** (0.021)

0.133*** (0.026)

Education Level, Secondary Omitted

         

Ed. LT primary

−0.415*** (0.043)

−0.398*** (0.043)

−0.762*** (0.031)

−0.229*** (0.017)

−0.014* (0.007)

−0.057* (0.023)

−0.238*** (0.018)

0.008 (0.014)

0.046* (0.020)

Ed. primary

−0.238*** (0.030)

−0.241*** (0.031)

−0.581*** (0.033)

−0.154*** (0.014)

−0.049*** (0.007)

0.023** (0.008)

−0.083*** (0.013)

−0.015 (0.009)

−0.006 (0.014)

Ed. University

−0.023 (0.015)

0.045** (0.015)

−0.044*** (0.010)

0.110*** (0.012)

0.025* (0.011)

0.126*** (0.010)

0.060 (0.032)

0.058** (0.018)

0.098*** (0.020)

Residence, rural omitted

         

Urban/Rural missing

0.104*** (0.028)

0.104*** (0.027)

  

−0.104* (0.051)

  

−0.002 (0.017)

0.062** (0.024)

Urban

0.055*** (0.012)

0.053*** (0.012)

0.002 (0.013)

0.101*** (0.011)

0.019 (0.017)

−0.046** (0.017)

 

0.004 (0.012)

−0.017 (0.019)

Governorate/Province Controls (Standardized)

        

Percentage connected to electricity (SD)

0.009 (0.009)

0.006 (0.009)

0.034 (0.027)

0.020 (0.013)

−0.040*** (0.012)

0.004 (0.004)

0.053* (0.025)

0.015 (0.010)

0.035*** (0.010)

Percentage connected to piped water (SD)

0.017 (0.012)

0.014 (0.012)

−0.015 (0.035)

−0.004 (0.018)

−0.013 (0.021)

−0.004 (0.006)

−0.005 (0.020)

−0.018* (0.009)

−0.016 (0.010)

Percentage connected to sewerage network (SD)

0.016 (0.013)

0.020 (0.011)

0.051 (0.040)

0.019 (0.022)

0.074 (0.039)

−0.062*** (0.013)

0.023 (0.012)

−0.018* (0.009)

−0.013 (0.012)

Percentage w/ secondary educ. in working age pop. (SD)

−0.019 (0.017)

−0.016 (0.016)

−0.107** (0.040)

0.028 (0.020)

−0.045* (0.023)

0.044*** (0.008)

0.025 (0.020)

0.063*** (0.011)

0.028 (0.015)

Percentage w/ university educ. in working age pop. (SD)

−0.020 (0.011)

−0.023* (0.011)

−0.037 (0.036)

−0.024 (0.015)

−0.014 (0.018)

−0.044*** (0.004)

−0.056*** (0.017)

−0.033*** (0.006)

−0.040*** (0.010)

Gender & education interactions

         

Female * Ed LT. primary

 

−0.027 (0.021)

0.020 (0.035)

−0.037 (0.023)

−0.037 (0.026)

−0.461*** (0.052)

0.140*** (0.016)

0.088 (0.050)

−0.012 (0.080)

Female * ed. primary

 

0.030* (0.015)

0.155*** (0.033)

0.016 (0.011)

0.004 (0.025)

−0.099*** (0.025)

0.175*** (0.008)

0.110*** (0.031)

−0.015 (0.030)

Female * ed. university

 

−0.176*** (0.014)

−0.210*** (0.014)

−0.185*** (0.018)

0.098*** (0.017)

−0.217*** (0.008)

−0.025 (0.022)

−0.088*** (0.024)

−0.078*** (0.023)

Public sector & education interactions

        

Public sector rate * ed. LT primary

 

0.081* (0.032)

0.174*** (0.020)

0.016 (0.010)

0.010* (0.005)

0.054** (0.018)

0.034** (0.012)

0.030* (0.013)

0.007 (0.023)

Public sector rate * ed. primary

 

0.058** (0.020)

0.127*** (0.027)

0.014 (0.010)

0.008 (0.006)

0.040*** (0.006)

0.038** (0.013)

0.018** (0.007)

−0.000 (0.012)

Public sector rate * ed. university

 

0.013 (0.015)

0.030** (0.010)

−0.006 (0.009)

0.021* (0.008)

−0.004 (0.007)

−0.034 (0.019)

0.019 (0.017)

0.009 (0.018)

Public sector & gender interaction

         

Public sector rate * female

 

−0.027* (0.013)

−0.033* (0.013)

−0.021 (0.011)

0.026 (0.014)

0.093*** (0.011)

0.019 (0.011)

0.004 (0.018)

0.003 (0.020)

Public sector, gender, & education interactions

        

Public sector rate * female ed. LT primary

 

0.036 (0.026)

−0.030 (0.033)

0.032 (0.021)

−0.041 (0.028)

0.080* (0.039)

−0.017 (0.019)

−0.028 (0.045)

−0.365** (0.126)

Public sector rate * female* ed. primary

 

0.037* (0.016)

−0.116*** (0.029)

0.019 (0.011)

−0.005 (0.029)

−0.011 (0.035)

−0.046*** (0.010)

−0.033 (0.039)

−0.033 (0.028)

Public sector rate * female* ed. university

 

0.052*** (0.012)

0.060*** (0.013)

0.051*** (0.012)

−0.029* (0.014)

−0.054*** (0.007)

0.008 (0.010)

−0.020 (0.023)

0.047* (0.024)

Country-year fixed effects (Egypt 1996 omitted)

         

Egypt 2006

−0.081*** (0.021)

−0.081*** (0.020)

       

Iraq 1997

0.012 (0.034)

0.016 (0.037)

       

Jordan 2004

0.050 (0.038)

0.052 (0.040)

       

Morocco 2004

0.054 (0.034)

0.053 (0.033)

       

Palestine 1997

−0.063 (0.033)

−0.056 (0.032)

       

Palestine 2007

−0.036 (0.025)

−0.028 (0.023)

       

N (Observations) Pseudo R-squared

2,084,702 0.129

2,084,702 0.135

679,333 0.320

839,128 0.149

233,428 0.077

67,750 0.151

218,806 0.072

27,239 0.082

19,018 0.062

  1. Notes:
  2. Statistical significance is marked by * at 5%, ** at 1% and *** at 0.1%.
  3. Standard Errors clustered at Country-year-governorate/province level.
  4. Governorates/provinces with a public employment rate above the 99th percentile are excluded from the sample.
  5. Reference case: Male, Secondary, age 22 at mean for province/governorate characteristics.
  6. Source: Author’s calculations based on data from Minnesota Population Center (2013).